Stagnation on the horizon: Canada in 2025

#canada #productivity #crisis #stagnation #stagnation #innovation

As Canada faces four more years of Trump-influenced economics, its economic foundations will come under strain. "Trump economics" lack formal definition, consisting largely of Navarro's ideas and elements of Manifest Destiny. This will test Canada’s trade relations with its key partner, the U.S. A slowdown in American demand could further exacerbate Canada’s deepening productivity crisis, already causing severe economic challenges.

Economic Indicators of Decline

Productivity

"Canada’s standard of living, measured by real GDP per capita, was lower in 2023 than in 2014." — TD Economics🔗 TD Economics Report

Investment

Since 2013:

• Canadian investment abroad ⬆️ 73%

• Foreign investment in Canada ⬇️ 55%

  🔗 Fraser Institute Report

R&D

• R&D spending at its lowest since 2000

• Only 1.54% of GDP allocated to R&D, well below OECD averages

  🔗 Global Advantage Report

Future Growth

"Canada has lagged in GDP per capita growth for over a decade. As of 2021, Canada’s GDP per capita (~$50,000) was 40% lower than the U.S. In 2024, Canada ranked second to last."🔗 Macdonald-Laurier Institute

GDP Per Capita

• U.S.: $66,300 (2015 dollars)

• Canada: $44,400

  
  

  🔗 The Hub Report

The National Bank dubbed 2015–2024 Canada’s “Lost Decade”, citing a collapse in investment and stagnating productivity.🔗 National Bank Report

A Cultural and Economic Crisis

What will it take for Canadians to demand change? This crisis has deepened for over two decades, accelerating under Liberal policies that displaced private equity and eroded the business climate. However, this is not solely a political failure—it’s a broad cultural and structural issue.